Sustainability Assessment Framework for Urban Transportation Combining System Dynamics Modeling and GIS; A TOD and Parking Policy Approach

Urban transportation systems face increasing pressure to reduce car dependency and greenhouse gas emissions while supporting sustainable growth. This study addresses the lack of integrated modeling approaches that capture both spatial and temporal dynamics in transport planning. It develops a novel framework combining System Dynamics (SD) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to assess the sustainability of Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) strategies and parking policies in two brownfield redevelopment sites in Montreal. The framework embeds spatial metrics, such as proximity to transit, parking availability, and active transportation infrastructure into dynamic feedback loops. Using scenario analysis, the study compares a baseline reflecting current norms with an intervention scenario emphasizing higher density near transit, reduced parking ratios, and improved walkability and bike infrastructure. The results suggest that aligning TOD principles with targeted parking limits and investments in active mobility can substantially reduce car ownership and emissions. While primarily conceptual, the model provides a foundation for location-sensitive, feedback-driven planning tools that support sustainable urban mobility.