Scenario-Based Futures Research on Tourism Destination Competitiveness: An Interdisciplinary Framework Using Delphi and MICMAC

In recent years, tourism competitiveness has become a key factor in urban development, significantly affecting economic, social, and environmental sustainability. This study aims to identify and analyze the main drivers of tourism destination competitiveness using a futures research methodology. To address this gap, the study adopts a scenario-based futures research framework that integrates the Delphi method (for expert-driven identification of key drivers), MICMAC structural analysis (to evaluate systemic interdependencies), and Scenario Wizard (to generate internally consistent future scenarios). This methodological combination is rarely applied in tourism research and represents an interdisciplinary innovation that allows for dynamic modeling of tourism competitiveness under uncertainty. Through a systematic process, 25 initial factors were categorized into five dimensions, and 14 key drivers were extracted based on their influence. These drivers were then modeled using Scenario Wizard software, resulting in 14 plausible future scenarios. The study found that 80% of these scenarios indicate optimistic conditions for tourism development. The optimal scenario suggests strategic priorities such as fostering tourism culture, promoting interorganizational coordination, enhancing investment and marketing, and strengthening infrastructure. These insights not only provide a practical framework for policymakers and urban planners but also contribute to the methodological advancement of interdisciplinary scenario-based tourism research