Unpacking the Economic Environmental Nexus in Egypt: Insights from an ARDL Study on Determinants of GHG Emissions

The complex relationship between environmental aspects and economic functioning is one of the key challenges facing modern science. The greenhouse effect is intensified by greenhouse gas emissions, primarily caused by human activities (Anthropogenic activities on GHGs). This study aims to investigate the relationship between the primary economic determinants and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Egypt from 1990 to 2022. The GHG indicator used covers 7 types of gases. The variables of this study sourced from the World Bank’s official website; they are Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions (MtCO₂e -Metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent), Population growth (annual %), GDP growth (annual %), Gross fixed capital formation for private sector (% of GDP), Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP), Agricultural land (% of land area), and Transport services (% of service exports, BoP). The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used. The main findings emphasize that population and agriculture have the strongest positive impacts. At the same time, GDP and manufacturing are secondary, but significant. Gross capital formation is the only variable reducing emissions, and transport services show no significant long-run effect.