Manoeuvring Prediction for Safe and Efficient Ship Handling in Training and Ship Operation – Status Quo and Outlook

Prediction methods and forecast of future developments and trends as well as related decisions or actions and reactions have been playing a vital role in human live and evolution. Human intelligence allowed for a dominating role in the development of our planet using our brains and more and more computers and merging artificial intelligence in the future. In the maritime domain, among others, the forecast of ships motion has been developed: from simple straight forward voyage planning in paper charts based only on rough measurement of estimated positions and ship motions, up to the latest developments using electronic navigation, ECDIS, communication technologies and high sophisticated Fast Time Simulation (FTS) methods. In the paper the already known technologies for supporting the ship handling process will be compared with potential new methods from single prediction up to multiple prediction and even step ahead prediction with unrivalled extension of the decision horizon. It reflects new requirements for preplanning of manoeuvres as part of berth-to-berth voyage planning specifically for arrival and departure segments - and increasing demands for safety and efficiency for the execution of manoeuvres in the conning process. Computer-based systems have been developed for “Simulation Augmented Manoeuvring Design, Monitoring & Conning” and are used to analyse and demonstrate the different prediction methods. Complex models of ship manoeuvring dynamics are implemented in order to forecast the immediate response on commanded control settings or even external effects as wind and shallow water for a suitable time period of the future motion. The paper provides insights into the potential benefits of various prediction methods based on FTS, discussed both for long term preplanning and short-term prediction for real-time support during the manoeuvring process. The benefits for increasing the effectiveness of lecturing and simulator training using these methods are obvious specifically for complex manoeuvring systems and will be demonstrated in this paper. It is a break-through in lecturing and training for immediate knowledge generation and checking ideas, it works perfectly for self-study individual learning and is excellent for the preparation of trainees for Full Mission simulator training, covering not only aspects of safe but also energy efficient and emission-minimized manoeuvres. Finally, potential future applications for wider navigation areas will be addressed.