STATISTICAL METHODS FOR DIAGNOSING THE LEVEL OF UKRAINE'S ECONOMIC SECURITY IN THE CONTEXT OF FORMULATING STRATEGIC PRIORITIES OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION POLICY

The full-scale armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine has significantly weakened the mechanisms for protecting the state's sovereignty and national interests, resulting in a sharp decline in the country's economic security. This situation necessitates the development of a comprehensive set of effective measures aimed at strengthening Ukraine's defense capabilities, ensuring macroeconomic and socio-political stability, and promoting socio-economic development. The purpose of this article is to explore the potential application of modern statistical methods for diagnosing the level of Ukraine’s economic security and to substantiate strategic priorities for its enhancement under martial law conditions. The methodological framework of the research includes general scientific and specialized methods of economic analysis, such as systems analysis, statistical analysis, synthesis, abstraction, classification, comparison, factor analysis, correlation-regression analysis, generalization, systematization, and graphical methods. The article defines the essence of Ukraine's economic security and analyzes the key risks and threats to its provision. It outlines optimal statistical methods for diagnosing the country's economic security under the special legal regime of martial law. Factor analysis and correlation-regression analysis are proposed as the most suitable statistical tools for this purpose. The study identifies current challenges in assessing the state of Ukraine's economic security and emphasizes the need to improve evaluation mechanisms. Analytical research is conducted on the dynamics of Ukraine’s economic security during the period 2022 – 2024, revealing the most significant threats, namely: (1) intensifying inflationary pressures and an inflation rate increase to 126.6%; (2) a sharp decline in GDP to – 25.5%; (3) a rise in the state budget deficit to – 20.39%; and (4) a deterioration in the foreign trade balance to – 20.90%. The article identifies key strategic priorities of public policy aimed at ensuring Ukraine’s economic security, including: (1) diversification of foreign economic activity and stimulation of export growth; (2) implementation of tax incentives, guarantees, and preferences to boost domestic investment; (3) enhancement of energy autonomy through renewable energy sources; and (4) development of a permanent monitoring system for economic security based on statistical modeling.