Optimisation of Biomass-Energy-Water-Food Nexus under Uncertainty

The three systems, water, energy and food, are intertwined since the effect of any of these systems can affect others. This study proposes a mathematical model incorporating uncertain parameters in the biomass energy-water-food nexus system. The novel aspects of this work include formulating and solving the problem as a mixed-integer linear program and addressing the presence of uncertain parameters through a two-stage stochastic mathematical programming approach. Taking maximising economic benefit as an objective function, this work compares the results of the deterministic model with the results computed by incorporating uncertainty in the model parameters. The results indicate that incorporation of uncertainty gives rise to reduced profitability, but increased greenhouse gas emission (GHG) as compared to the deterministic model. On the other hand, when minimisation of GHG emission is considered as an objective function, a significantly greater reduction in the profitability is observed for both, stochastic and deterministic, models. The model results are used for allocating optimal resources, reducing carbon footprint, increasing economic potential and managing resources sustainably in the whole system.