Materials-Related Challenges of Energy Transition

Transition from fossil fuels to clean energy technologies (CETs) is critical, but material shortages threaten to hinder progress. This study analyzes the potential deficits in 14 key materials � such as lithium, nickel, and cadmium � based on capacity projections for CETs by eight Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) for 2020-2050. It focuses on technologies including battery storage, concentrated solar power (CSP), electrolyzers, solar photovoltaics (PV), and wind turbines. Our findings show that these materials could face shortages of up to 97% by 2050. To meet rising demand, material production rates must increase sharply, with some materials like cadmium, selenium, and tellurium requiring about 31% increases, peaking in this decade. Immediate actions are needed to accelerate production and improve recycling efforts. However, recycling targets, such as 325% for lithium, seem highly challenging to achieve. Without these measures, material shortages could delay CET deployment, risking Paris Agreement goals. To prevent these disruptions, we call for: (i) revising CET capacity projections, (ii) urgent planning for mining expansion, and (iii) a significant increase in recycling infrastructure to ensure a sustainable energy transition.