Solar-Driven Hydrogen Economy Potential in the Greater Middle East: Geographic, Economic, and Environmental Perspectives

The production of hydrogen from solar energy has surged in popularity in recent years, driven by global initiatives to combat climate change. The Greater Middle East (GME) region, with its favorable geographical position, offers considerable potential for solar-based hydrogen generation. This study combines Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) with data-driven optimization models to assess land suitability and hydrogen production potential within the region under various scenarios. Findings highlight that water availability is the primary limiting factor, followed closely by road accessibility in determining land suitability for hydrogen production. According to the AHP analysis, only 3.8% of the GME region is highly suitable for such initiatives. Projections suggest that by 2050, the region could achieve a total hydrogen production capacity of up to 1590 Mt/y, potentially avoiding around 4586 Mt of CO2 emissions if all highly suitable land is utilized effectively. Furthermore, the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is expected to decrease to a range of $2.56-4.17/kg, while green ammonia and methanol costs are anticipated to fall between $0.56-0.79/kg and $0.67-0.93/kg, respectively. This study offers valuable insights that contribute significantly to the global hydrogen discourse and provides essential guidance for policymakers aiming to develop comprehensive strategies for advancing the hydrogen economy in the GME region.