Integrating process and demand uncertainty in capacity planning for next-generation pharmaceutical supply chains

Emerging sectors within the biopharmaceutical industry are undergoing rapid scale-up due to the market boom of gene therapies and vaccine platform technologies. Manufacturers are pressured to orchestrate resources and plan investments under future demand uncertainty and, critically, an early-stage process uncertainty for platforms still under development. In this work, a multi-product multi-stage stochastic optimization problem integrating demand uncertainty is presented and augmented with a worst-case optimization approach with respect to process uncertainty. Results focus on a comparison between fixed equipment facilities and modular technologies, highlighting an inherent flexibility of the latter option due to shorter recourse actions for capacity scale-out. The impact of process uncertainty integration is quantified. With more conservative decisions taken in first-stages of the time horizon, expected costs result lower for modular single-use equipment. This suggests that capacity adjustments also help adapt to varying process performance and reduce the propagation conservative design decisions.