THE EFFECT OF EARTHQUAKE ON THE TOURISM SECTOR: CASE OF TURKIYE 1999 AND 2023

Perceptions of tourism risk and decision-making processes are influenced by various factors, including security concerns, socioeconomic and demographic characteristics such as age, gender, education, religion, income, tourism motivation, and personal experiences. The effect of disaster events on tourism is shaped by the events’ magnitude, frequency, and the destination’s ability to adapt and recover. This study investigates how the 1999 Marmara and 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes influenced Türkiye’s tourism sector, using a qualitative methodology supported by secondary data. Tourism statistics from the 1999 Marmara earthquake show a sharp decline in international tourist arrivals—from 9,752,697 in 1998 to 7,487,285 in 1999. Tourism revenues also dropped significantly, with estimated losses reaching $3 million due to canceled tours. A 25% decline in tourism was noted specifically during August and September 1999. In contrast, the 2023 earthquake did not result in a significant reduction in tourism activity. One reason for the stability in 2023 is that the earthquake-affected regions—such as Kahramanmaraş, Hatay, Adıyaman, Malatya, Gaziantep, and others—are geographically distant from major tourist destinations like Antalya, Bodrum, and Muğla. However, public perception plays a critical role. If tourists are unaware that their intended destinations are unaffected, it could lead to declines regardless of safety. To enhance recovery and build resilience, several strategies are proposed. First, rebuilding critical infrastructure—roads, bridges, and public spaces—is essential. Second, social media should be used effectively to promote unaffected tourist destinations. Targeted campaigns should highlight attractions based on specific tourist interests, such as family travel, adventure, or gastronomy. Collaborations with platforms like Booking.com, TripAdvisor, and Expedia can further ease travel planning. Moreover, media engagement is vital. Positive coverage can help reshape the destination image. Journalists and bloggers should be provided with accurate, timely information about recovery efforts and safe areas. Despite effective recovery from the 2023 event, challenges remain in establishing clear causal relationships between crises and structural changes in tourism flows. Structural break analysis, while helpful, is limited by time-specific data and cannot fully isolate tourism behavior triggers.