Entangled fates—the rally effect around Europe due to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine

Abstract The Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered the deadliest escalation of a war in Europe since World War II. There is an extensive literature on the tendency of national leaders to experience a surge of support in times of international crises, which is dubbed the rally around the flag effect. However, much less attention is paid to whether a similar rally effect could be observed around a supranational flag. This study employs a quasi-experimental design to test whether the EU experienced a surge in support due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The results show that a rally around the EU did occur, and that it is best explained by considerations of advantages accorded by a united Europe rather than through the lens of European identity. The study is a cause of optimism regarding the ability of the EU to gain the support of even those who are not emotionally attached to the European project. However, the findings also place the onus on the EU to prove itself a reliable haven from threats for those who put their trust in it, from within and without.