Water Footprint Through an Analysis of Water Conservation Policy: Comparative Analysis of Water-Intensive and Water-Efficient Crops Using IoT-Driven ML Models

Although economic profitability and food security often outweigh water conservation priorities in arid and semi-arid regions, this study investigates irrigation practices by evaluating water footprint and economic feasibility through a comparative analysis of water-intensive and water-efficient crops. In this context, an optimal irrigation disparity framework integrated with Internet of Things (IoT) and Machine Learning (ML) mechanisms is proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of water conservation, thereby assessing the potential for enhancing economic profitability. IoT-enabled components are employed to monitor real-time environmental—soil moisture, temperature, and weather—conditions between March and November 2023. This data is processed using a hybrid modeling approach that integrates KNN, GBT, and LSTM algorithms to predict both the duration of cultivation and the water requirements. Finally, the predicted parameters are incorporated into a multi-objective framework aimed at minimizing the disparity in water allocation per net benefit. The final results indicate that saffron required substantially less water—ranging from (19.87 to 28.65 ∗ 106 m3)—compared to watermelon, which consumed (34.61 to 47.07 ∗ 106 m3), while achieving a higher average net profit (33 ∗ 109 IRR) relative to watermelon (31 ∗ 109 IRR). Moreover, saffron consistently approached optimal values across disparity-based objective functions, averaging (0.404). These findings emphasize the dual advantages of saffron as a value-added, water-efficient crop in achieving substantial water conservation while enhancing profitability, offering actionable insights for authorities to incentivize water-efficient crop adoption through subsidies, market mechanisms, or regulatory frameworks. These strategies operationalize technical insights into actionable pathways for balancing food security, economic growth, and environmental resilience.