Climate and Groundwater Depth Relationships in Selected Breede Gouritz Water Management Area Subregions Between 2009 and 2020

Groundwater resources are changing under the current climate change trajectory. Mitigation and adaptation measures include understanding the inter-working relationships among all climate variables and water resources, specifically groundwater, since it has less direct impacts than surface waters due to its nature. The Breede Gouritz Water Management Area provides an interesting platform to assess these interdependencies, since they have not been assessed before. To assess any underlying dependencies, a multivariate analysis of independent variables including monthly average temperature, summative precipitation, and average evapotranspiration, and a dependent monthly variable, i.e., average groundwater depth, from 14 boreholes was conducted. Moreover, a groundwater depth near-future prediction for each relevant borehole was made. The Multiple Linear Regression model was chosen as the appropriate one since it is cost- and time-effective, entry-level, easy to interpret, and provides a simple and basic understanding of the relationship dependencies. The Kruskal-Wallis test was also performed to elaborate on findings from the Multiple Linear Regression models. Simple linear models incorporating independent and dependent variables can only account for up to 41.7% of the variation in groundwater depth. Groundwater depth is mainly influenced by temperature and evapotranspiration and is expected to be lower for ten dependent variables. The more arid regions in the study area can expect groundwater depth to lower soon and need to use alternative water resources. The temperate west of the study area could expect more favorable outcomes regarding groundwater depth in the near future. Incorporating more variables and using a multi-modal approach to combat non-linear relationships is recommended in future.