Problems of Employment of the Older Generation during the Period of Raising the Retirement Age in Russia

The subject of the work is the balance of labor resources of the Russian Federation in the medium term, taking into account the specifics of employment of the older generation and other age groups of the population. The influence of the economy and other processes and phenomena external to the labor market on the employment of the population is considered. The relevance of the study is determined by modern changes in politics, economics and the demographic situation, including the reform of the retirement age, COVID-19, CBO and a sharp increase in defense spending. The aim is to test the traditional methodology of labor resource balance as a tool for integrating the flows of economic, demographic information and taking into account the political situation in the process of forecasting employment. As a result of the study, variant estimates and forecasts for 2025-2027 were developed for the number and structure of the Russian labor force, including the able-bodied population of working age, people beyond working age and migrant workers, employed and unemployed. It is assumed that in the medium term, the trend of economic growth will continue, which will gradually weaken pressure on the labor market, supporting the systemic shortage of labor resources that formed during the 2010s and 2020s, and create a base for employers to compete for labor and increase wages. The demographic situation in the medium term will consist of periodic increases in the nominal working-age population during the final stage of pension reform, which will not have a significant impact on the number of workers. The regulatory role in the number of labor resources and labor force will remain with external labor migration. Unemployment will remain at the current level, which tends to zero in the macroeconomic sense.