Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in the Yellow River Basin: a Hu Huanyong Line perspective

ABSTRACT Water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) is vital in safeguarding regional ecological balance and avoiding over-exploitation of water resources. This study constructed a multi-dimensional evaluation index system integrating water resources, social economy, residents’ life, and ecological environment and applied the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution model to evaluate the WRCC of the Yellow River Basin from 2011 to 2020. The spatial and temporal characteristics of WRCC and the main obstacle factors are analyzed according to the Hu Huanyong Line. The findings showed that the WRCC comprehensive index (Ci) exhibited marginal improvement (11.25% increase) but remained critically overloaded, with values fluctuating between 0.076 and 0.092. Spatial analysis demonstrated a distinct west–east gradient, with Ci values decreasing from 0.096 (west of the Hu Line) to 0.068 (east). This decrease correlates inversely with the intensity of regional development. Systemic diagnostics identified water resources (49.03) and ecological factors (43.03) as dominant constraints, with per capita water availability (43.75) and ecological water utilization rate (40.54) jointly accounting for 84.29 obstacles. Spatial heterogeneity manifested through divergent constraint patterns: water scarcity intensified eastward, while ecological water deficits worsened westward. The results can provide support for water resources management and utilization.