Predictive Factors for Recurrence of Choledocholithiasis After ERCP with Sphincterotomy in Benign Biliary Tract Disease: A Retrospective Study

Objectives: To analyze the factors associated with recurrent choledocholithiasis following endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) with biliary sphincterotomy (BS). Methods: A retrospective, observational, and analytical cohort study was conducted. Patients who underwent ERCP with BS for benign biliary pathology and were followed for a minimum of two years were included. Demographic and clinical data were collected, including the indication for the procedure, endoscopic findings, performance and timing of cholecystectomy (before or after ERCP), and the need for repeat procedures. Episodes of choledocholithiasis were defined as those occurring at least six months after the initial ERCP. Follow-up continued until patient death, loss of follow-up, or the conclusion of the study. Results: A total of 576 patients were included, with a mean age of 71 years and an average follow-up duration of 131 months. Sixty-nine cases of recurrent choledocholithiasis were documented (11.96%). Multivariate analysis identified the following predictive factors for recurrence: age over 50 years, bile duct dilation upon initial evaluation, history of biliary surgery, cytology sampling, placement of biliary stents, repeated ERCP, biliary diversion procedures, and cholecystectomy prior to the index ERCP. Conclusions: Biliary duct dilation, advanced age, and any previous manipulation of the biliary tree are associated with an increased risk of recurrent choledocholithiasis. Cholecystectomy performed after the initial ERCP was not associated with a reduced recurrence risk.