Rainfall forecast and potential flooding of agricultural land in Serang Regency, Banten, Indonesia

Serang Regency has a sub-tropical climate and is classified as lowland, generally consisting of rice fields, fields, and gardens. These three lands have the potential to flood during the rainy season, which has implications for a decrease in agricultural production. Flood forecasts are carried out on agricultural land to avoid decreased production. The data used included rainfall, harvest area, and agricultural production. Estimates of farmland flooding and agricultural production changes are overlayed with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and production percentages. The results of rainfall analysis show that the monthly average rainfall in Serang Regency is categorized as low to high. Meanwhile, heavy rain has the potential to occur in January and February. After being coated with GIS, it is spatially predicted that six sub-districts with an altitude below 10 meters above sea level have the potential to flood. Of the six sub-districts, 2,902.80 ha of agricultural land is estimated to have the potential to be flooded. Flooding in the area has implications for decreasing the production of seasonal crops, vegetables and fruits. Food crop production decreased by 0.42 %, while seasonal vegetables and fruits decreased by 48.04 %. There are five types of food crops and 12 types of vegetables and fruits that have the potential to be developed in Serang Regency. The food crop with the most significant production is rice, while the seasonal production of vegetables and fruits is cucumbers. In the event of a flood, rice production in Serang Regency is predicted to decrease by 1.23 % and cucumber production is expected to decrease by 0.48 %. It is necessary to adopt a planting pattern with a climate approach to minimize the decline in production.