Recidivism in Russia: Trends and Regularities

Repeat crime is a serious threat to state and public security. A repeat offence committed by a previously convicted persons testifies to a low effectiveness of criminal law measures that failed to ensure the correction of a person and prevent a new crime. The identification of the trends and regularities of repeat offences is significant for the determination of the factors contributing to their spread which acts as a necessary prerequisite for developing the measures of prevention. The conducted analysis of crime indicators for persons with unexpunged or outstanding convictions in the period of 2011–2023 made it possible to identify a number of trends typical of repeat crimes in Russia, including: a growing share of repeat crimes in the total number of registered and investigated crimes; increase in the criminal activities of post-penitentiary repeat offenders who commit a new crime within one year of being released from detention; increase in the number of registered crimes of small gravity; reduction in the specific weight of murders, intentional bodily harm and drug-related crimes committed without the intention of selling (Art. 228 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation (CC of the RF)); a stable share of thefts and non-payment of maintenance for underage children and disabled parents (Art. 157 of the CC of the RF); appearance of a new crime in this structure — driving a vehicle under the influence, which was criminalized in 2021 (Art. 264.1 of the CC of the RF). The author concludes that the trend for repeat offences was different from the general crime trend — the indices of repeat offences turned out to be more stable. The highest indices of repeat offences are found in the regions with a generally unfavorable criminal situation, which stresses the dominant role of general social factors in determining repeat crimes, testifying to a deep connection between socio-economic conditions and crime. In the country as a whole and in most Federal Districts the crime rate of probationers was lower than the rate of criminal activity of persons released from detention. However, in Siberian and Far Eastern Federal Districts, the coefficient of repeat offences among probationers was considerably higher than the coefficient of post-penitentiary repeat crime. This predetermines the high danger of repeat offences on these territories.