Study on Investment for Power Infrastructure in China Towards Carbon Neutrality

Under global climate change and China’s “carbon neutrality” target, optimizing power infrastructure investment is critical for promoting energy transition and sustainable development. This study systematically analyzes and compares the investments of four types of power infrastructure (thermal power, hydropower, wind power, and photovoltaics) based on the data from power projects commissioned during China’s 13th Five-Year Plan period. The research examines multiple dimensions, including differences in unit investment costs, spatial distribution characteristics, temporal evolution trends, and budget to final cost deviations, to reveal the investment characteristics and optimization strategies for different power projects. The results indicate that hydropower exhibits the highest unit investment cost, while thermal power has the lowest. The cost of photovoltaic projects has shown a significant downward trend due to technological advancements. Additionally, investment costs vary significantly across regions, influenced by resource endowments, market demand, and policy environments. The study finds that economies of scale are more evident in thermal and hydropower projects, whereas wind power projects do not demonstrate a significant reduction in unit investment costs with scale expansion due to factors such as site selection, technology, and supply chain constraints. Based on these findings, this study proposes policy recommendations, including optimizing investment scale, advancing market-oriented financing, enhancing resource utilization efficiency, and strengthening policy guidance to improve investment returns and facilitate the efficient development of power infrastructure in China’s green and low-carbon transition. 在全球气候变化和中国“碳中和”战略目标的背景下，优化电力基础设施投资成为推动能源结构转型和可持续发展的关键。本研究基于“十三五”期间中国投产的电力工程项目数据，对火电、水电、风电和光伏四类电力基础设施的投资状况进行系统分析与比较研究。研究从单位投资差异、空间分布特征、时间演化趋势、概决算偏差等多个维度，揭示了不同类型电力项目的投资特征和优化对策。结果表明，水电单位投资最高，火电最低，光伏成本因技术进步呈现显著下降趋势。此外，单位投资在不同地区存在显著差异，受资源禀赋、市场需求及政策环境影响较大。研究发现，规模经济效应在火电和水电项目中较为明显，而风电项目的单位投资由于受到选址、技术及供应链因素影响较大，未呈现随规模经济扩张而显著下降的趋势。基于研究结果，本研究提出了优化投资规模、推进市场化融资、提升资源利用效率和强化政策引导等对策建议，以提高投资收益率，助力绿色低碳转型背景下中国电力基础设施的高效建设。