Climate Anomaly Sums as a Researching Tool for the Epidemic Process of West Nile Fever

Long-term dynamics of climate indicators is a significant factor determining the course of the West Nile fever epidemic process. Based on epidemiological monitoring data and climate modeling results, a search was made for new predictors of sporadic outbreaks that can expand the understanding of the logic of the spread of the fever pathogen using the example of a large endemic focus in the Volgograd region. Based on the ecological characteristics of the strain circulating in the region, a new approach to determining the time frame of the epidemic season is proposed, taking into account the optimal temperatures for the development of the virus. The relationship between positive and negative climate anomalies (air temperature, precipitation) and West Nile fever incidence was studied. The strongest correlations were demonstrated by polynomial cubic models, including the sums of negative precipitation anomalies and the sums of positive temperature anomalies. The study emphasizes the importance of shifting the epidemiological paradigm towards taking into account climate anomalies when assessing the risks of the spread of vector-borne infections.