Trends in women’s education and fertility in Japan and China: a comparative analysis

Abstract East Asian countries have undergone significant demographic shifts characterized by declining fertility rates and the expansion of higher education opportunities for women. Adopting a comparative perspective, this study examines cohort-based changes in the relationship between women’s educational attainment and fertility behaviors in China and Japan via discrete-time event history models and difference-in-differences analysis. The results reveal divergent trends: Japan shows a weakening negative association between higher education and fertility over time, whereas China demonstrates a persistent trend influenced by historical population control policies. These findings underscore the crucial roles played by sociocultural contexts and policy environments in shaping women’s fertility behaviors. Although China can draw lessons from Japan, the unique features of the Chinese socioeconomic landscape call for more targeted policies to address low fertility. This study further illustrates that ultralow fertility can emerge even in societies where traditional family values remain strong, contributing to broader discussions on the second demographic transition in East Asia.