Temporal Dynamics of Lake Burdur's Water Surface Area: A Two-Decade Remote Sensing Analysis and Future Forecasts

Global warming, climate change, increasing population and industrialization cause spatial and temporal changes in surface water resources. Lake Burdur, located in Turkey’s Lakes Region, is a tectonic closed basin lake that has experienced significant reductions in water surface area and volume. In this study, the changes in the water surface area of Lake Burdur between 2003 and 2023 were analyzed using Google Earth Engine. Based on the obtained data the estimated water surface area values of Lake Burdur for years 2028 and 2033 were calculated. Within the scope of the study, Landsat 5 satellite images were used for the years 2003 and 2008, while Landsat 8 satellite images were utilized for the years 2013, 2018, 2023 and 2024. To calculate the water surface area values of Lake Burdur for the specified years, the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) and the Automated Water Extraction Index for Shadow (AWEIsh) methods were utilized. In the study the data obtained from both methods on an annual basis were compared, and percentage difference values were calculated. Trend line functions were generated using the water surface area data obtained for the specified years to calculate future estimated values, and the accuracy of these functions was tested using the 2024 data. The findings after 2016 were also cross-verified and examined using Sentinel-2 data. The results indicate that the water surface area loss rate of Lake Burdur during the 20 year period between 2003 and 2023 was 22.82% according to the analysis conducted using NDWI, and this rate could increase to 34.56% by 2033. According to the analysis conducted using AWEIsh, the water surface area loss rate of the lake during the same period was calculated as 22.41% and it is estimated that this loss could reach 33.85% by 2033.