Descriptive analysis of the burden of Mpox in Nigeria 2022-2024

Aim to study: Nigeria has continued reporting outbreaks of Mpox since 2017 despite control measures instituted by the one health tripartite sector. This study aimed to assess the burden of Mpox in Nigeria between 2022 and 2024 by identifying geographical hotspots and calculating epidemic thresholds based on reported cases. Material and methods: Mpox outbreak reports from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (NCDC) for 2022–2024 were reviewed to identify affected states and determine confirmed case counts. Geospatial analysis was conducted using ArcGIS software to identify Mpox outbreak hotspots. Results: A total of 984 confirmed Mpox cases were reported across 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), resulting in 9 fatalities. Lagos State emerged as a major hotspot, accounting for 24.7% of cases (188 cases) in 2022, while Cross River and Plateau States became prominent in 2024. The epidemic thresholds were 115 in 2022, 43 in 2023, and 15 in 2024. Young adults aged 21-40 years were the most affected, and children under 10 years represented an emerging at-risk group in 2024, comprising 30% of reported cases. Geospatial analysis revealed shifting hotspots, contrary to earlier studies that identified Rivers and Bayelsa as major clusters. Conclusion: These findings underscore the need for enhanced surveillance, targeted public health interventions, and improved healthcare access to mitigate Mpox transmission in Nigeria.