System dynamics-based study on the scale diffusion of rural electric vehicles and charging infrastructure in Hebei Province

This study constructs a system dynamics model for the diffusion of electric vehicles and the scale of charging infrastructure in Hebei Province, incorporating subsystems for public charging pile manufacturers, electric vehicle users, and grid expansion. Using the dynamic elasticity coefficient method, a scenario analysis and forecast of the scale diffusion of electric vehicles and charging infrastructure in rural areas of Hebei are conducted. Through this model, the expansion trends of electric vehicles and charging infrastructure under different policy scenarios are analyzed in depth, and the impact of urbanization on the adoption of electric vehicles in rural areas is explored. The results show that policy support significantly promotes the development of electric vehicles and charging infrastructure, especially under accelerated growth scenarios, with rapid increases in electric vehicle ownership and charging pile construction in rural areas. This study provides quantitative evidence for the development of electric vehicles in rural areas of Hebei Province and offers scientific references for policy-making, supporting the realization of the "dual carbon" goals.