Uncovering time-varying drivers of agricultural output in Türkiye: A panel ARDL and Kalman Filter Analysis

Purpose: This study analyzes the factors affecting Türkiye's agricultural production performance between 1991 and 2022. By examining the role of key production inputs, it seeks to provide insights into the determinants of agricultural output and contributes to policy discussions on improving agricultural efficiency and sustainability. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study employs the agricultural output index as the dependent variable, while independent variables include agricultural labor, capital, land, and material indices, along with the import and export rates of agricultural raw materials. Panel ARDL and Kalman filter methods assess short- and long-run dynamics. Findings: The results indicate that capital and exports positively impact agricultural output, while land use contributes significantly. In contrast, labor's impact diminishes due to mechanization and the adoption of modern technology. Material use has a limited effect, highlighting the importance of cost management. Additionally, agricultural imports negatively influence productivity by increasing external dependence and costs. Research Limitations/Implications: Potential limitations include data constraints and unobserved structural changes in the agricultural sector that may affect the robustness of the results. Future research could incorporate additional variables related to climate change and technological advancements. Originality/Value: This study is among the rare analyses examining agricultural inputs' time-varying effects using advanced econometric techniques. It offers valuable insights into the evolving dynamics of Türkiye’s agricultural sector.