Assessment of the Impact of Vehicle Electrification on the Increase in Total Electrical Energy Consumption in Bosnia and Herzegovina

In this paper, an assessment of the impact of the electrification of the vehicle fleet in Bosnia and Herzegovina on the total electrical energy consumption is made, for different scenarios of increasing the number of electric vehicles. Based on a statistical analysis of the structure and number of vehicles in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the period from 2010 to 2024, an estimate of the total number of passenger cars, as well as the number of electric vehicles for the period up to 2050, is made. It is estimated that in 2050 the number of electric passenger cars will be around 300,000. For one representative electric passenger car, averaged annual electrical energy consumption is calculated. Based on the calculation and for the estimated number of electric vehicles in use, the total annual consumption of electrical energy for the segment of passenger cars is defined, for different scenarios of increasing the number of electric vehicles. Following the estimated increase in the number of passenger electric cars, an exponential increase in electrical energy consumption is estimated, reaching the annual amount of 635 GWh in 2050, which is 10 times higher than the total electrical energy consumption of the transport sector in 2024. In this way, for the period up to 2050, the additional amount of electrical energy that the electrical power grid should provide, due to the electrification of the vehicle fleet, is estimated.