Quantitative Evaluation of Crucial Substations and Simulation-Driven Impact Assessment of Commissioning Delays in Multi-Voltage Grid Planning

Rapidly expanding power demand in economically developing regions significantly amplifies the operational risks associated with the delayed commissioning of planned substations. This study proposes a data–physics fusion framework integrating analytic hierarchy process-based quantitative assessment with multi-voltage level grid evolution simulation. First, a novel set of evaluation indicators for assessing planned substation criticality, with weights determined through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), was established, enabling rapid assessment of delay impacts on investments and identification of crucial substations. This approach addresses the fundamental limitation of traditional planning methodologies, which inadequately quantify the compound effects of substation commissioning delays on multi-voltage grid evolution and associated investment inefficiencies. Subsequently, a multi-voltage level grid evolution model was developed, which quantitatively measures the cascading effects of substation commissioning delays on both low-voltage grid development and multi-level grid construction investments. Case study validation demonstrated a strong linear correlation between the proposed substation importance scores and the incremental construction costs induced by delays. The simulation-driven impact assessment model exhibits superior accuracy in evaluating commissioning delay consequences on multi-voltage grid construction compared to conventional approaches. This research provides power grid planners with a robust decision support framework for optimizing substation construction scheduling and minimizing delay-related cost escalations in complex grid development scenarios.