The importance of renewable energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in formulating Sustainable Development Index: An economic-environmental analysis based on the ARDL model

This study examines the impact of renewable energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, and renewable electricity generation on the Sustainable Development Index in Uzbekistan over the period 1990–2023. Using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, the study estimates the short- and long-run relationships between these variables. The Sustainable Development Index is constructed using indicators of primary school enrollment, life expectancy at birth, and female labor force participation using a min-max normalization method. The results indicate a long-run positive impact of renewable energy consumption (β = 0.0552, p < 0.05), underscoring its significant contribution to sustainable development. Conversely, renewable electricity generation has a significant negative impact in the long run (–0.0153, p < 0.01), which may be due to initial high transformation costs and short-term economic adjustments. CO₂ emissions did not have a statistically significant impact on the Sustainable Development Index. The model is robust, with no autocorrelation or heteroscedasticity issues, indicating reliable results. This study underscores the importance of strategic investments in renewable energy and offers valuable insights for policy development, thereby enhancing Uzbekistan’s sustainable development trajectory.