A Stochastic Techno-Economic Assessment of Emerging Artificial Photosynthetic Bio-Electrochemical Systems for CO2 Conversion

Artificial Photosynthetic Bio-Electrochemical Systems (AP-BES) offer a promising approach for converting CO2 to valuable bioproducts, addressing carbon mitigation and sustainable production. This study employs a stochastic techno-economic assessment (TEA) to estimate the viability of rhodopsin driven AP-BES, from carbon capture to product purification. Unlike traditional deterministic TEAs, this approach uses Monte Carlo simulations to model uncertainties in key technoeconomic parameters, including energy consumption, CO2 conversion efficiency, and bioproduct market prices. The analysis generates probability distributions for economic metrics such as Operational Expenditure (OPEX), Capital Expenditure (CAPEX), and profit. Enhancements in light-harvesting efficiency and advancements in reactor materials were predicted to reduce the payback period to just one year, thereby making large-scale deployment a feasible option.