Cracking Process of Early-Age Concretes: Basis of Numerical Probabilistic Models

This paper addresses the modeling of early-age cracking in concrete structures. It explores the application of two probabilistic cracking models, originally developed and validated for analyzing cracks in fully hydrated concrete: the Probabilistic Explicit Cracking (PEC) model and the Probabilistic Semi-Explicit Cracking (PSEC) model. The PEC model is intended for assessing service-level cracking (with crack openings of 300 microns or less), whereas the PSEC model targets larger crack formations. This study introduces a methodology for accounting for the evolution of the models’ probabilistic parameters during the early-age hydration process. Additionally, it outlines specific algorithmic development approaches tailored to each model. The primary aim of this work is to facilitate the implementation of these models by the scientific community through clear and accessible numerical development strategies. This work is fully original because, in the literature, probabilistic cracking numerical models for early-age concrete do not exist. These types of models associated with Monte Carlo approach permits the relevant safety analysis of early-age concrete constructions.