Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Suitability in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

Changing climatic conditions are significant determinants of agricultural productivity. Rio Grande do Sul is the southernmost state and the second-largest agricultural producer in Brazil. The suitability of its land for farming can be used as a proxy for agricultural and economic success, making it a pertinent case for exploring the consequences of climate change on major crop production. The latest available climate and environmental data was used to develop an agricultural Suitability Index (SI) that quantifies the suitability of land for rice, tobacco, soybean, and corn production in 2020 (present), 2050 (near-future), and 2100 (far-future) under moderate (SSP245) and extreme (SSP585) climate scenarios. SI scores for each municipality of Rio Grande do Sul consider inputs from a three-layer framework (climatic, non-climatic, and current production) to provide critical insight into potential shifts in agricultural productivity. While terrestrial suitability for crop growth varies both spatially and temporally, widespread decreases in suitability for all four crops are expected across the state under both scenarios. Soybean is expected to be the least affected crop, and rice is the most affected crop, tied to shifting patterns in precipitation, which significantly determines suitability. Local and state governments, agribusinesses, and family producers will have to adapt to environmental challenges to ensure the provision of food, labor, and economic security.