Extraction and Production of Natural Aggregates in Poland and the European Union – Analysis of Changes and Forecasts

Urbanisation, economic development and the growth of the world’s population contribute to a continuous increase in demand for mineral aggregates. In many countries and regions (Arab countries, some Asian countries) there is a significant deficit of aggregates, contributing to unsustainable exploitation with a negative environmental impact. To regulate this unfavourable situation related to the management of aggregate resources, one of the main conclusions of the UNEP 2019 Report is the need for a universal introduction of planning and monitoring of the process of obtaining natural aggregates. The paper presents changes in the extraction and production of aggregates between 2005-2022 for Poland and the European Union (2008-2022). These changes confirm the dependence of aggregate production on cement consumption in both Poland and the EU. Econometric models estimated for these relationships were then used to forecast aggregate production. The relatively small errors shown in the ex-post forecasts (2020-2023) confirm the possibility of using the estimated dependencies for ex-ante forecasts (2024-2027), which is illustrated, for example, by the production of mineral aggregates in Poland and the EU.