EU money and mayors: does Cohesion Policy affect local electoral outcomes?

Abstract The EU Cohesion Policy, with its capacity to shape the socio-economic development of European regions and cities, also holds the potential to influence the political preferences of citizens. While existing research has explored the effects of EU funding on national electoral outcomes, its impact on local elections remains underexamined, overlooking the inherently territorial nature of Cohesion Policy and the crucial role local policy-makers play in its activation and implementation. This study leverages detailed administrative data on European development projects to examine how EU funds affect political support for incumbent local politicians in Italy. It analyses the relationship between the inflow of European funds and the electoral support for Italian mayors, considering different project types that reflect the mayors’ ability to attract European funds. The findings demonstrate that Cohesion Policy significantly shapes local voting behaviour. Larger, more visible projects significantly increase the likelihood of mayoral re-election. Moreover, municipalities experiencing faster economic growth, where EU projects contribute to public service improvements, witness the strongest electoral gains for incumbents. These results highlight the critical importance of project design, visibility, and effectiveness in determining the political consequences of EU redistributive policies.