The Influence of State Monetary Policy on the Effectiveness of Marketing Forecasting of Enterprise Development

In an unstable macroeconomic environment (in particular, under the influence of inflation, interest rate fluctuations, devaluation and changes in the money supply), the marketing strategies of enterprises are becoming increasingly vulnerable to external risks. Insufficient integration of macroeconomic factors into marketing forecasting reduces forecasts' accuracy, complicating budgeting and making informed management decisions. The purpose of the article is to determine the mechanisms of influence of monetary policy on the effectiveness of marketing forecasting of enterprise development, as well as to develop an indicative tool – the Marketing Adaptability Index to the Monetary Environment (MAIME), which will allow assessing the level of sensitivity of the enterprise to changes in the monetary environment. The article examines the relationship between the state's monetary policy and the effectiveness of marketing forecasting of enterprise development. The author proposes a conceptual framework for quantitatively assessing the responsiveness of a company's marketing system to monetary changes-namely, the Marketing Adaptability Index to the Monetary Environment (MAIME). The index is based on four key components: the speed of response to changes in the key interest rate, the flexibility of the marketing budget, the accuracy of demand forecasting, and the presence of strategic response scenarios. A methodology for calculating each index component was proposed, and a practical interpretation of its values was given. MAIME can be integrated into a system of management decisions to assess risks and increase the adaptability of an enterprise's emerging strategies in the face of changing monetary policy. The article contains proposals for improving the marketing forecasting system, considering the influence of monetary factors and recommended adaptive actions. Particular attention was paid to assessing the flexibility of marketing budgeting, scenario planning, and the accuracy of forecasts in a changing environment. Practitioners and scientists can use the study's results to improve adaptive enterprise management models further in economic turbulence.