Is There a Shift in the Intended Tax Compliance During the COVID-19 Outbreak? An Exploratory Study

This exploratory study investigates whether there was a shift in intended tax compliance during the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania, identifying factors influencing taxpayers' perceived moral obligation to pay taxes amid crises. Using data from an online survey with 404 respondents conducted at the end of 2021, a multinomial logistic regression (MLR) analysis, informed by the slippery slope framework, was employed to analyze the role of voluntary and enforced compliance, trust in government, power of tax authorities, and other socio-demographic factors in influencing taxpayer behavior. The results indicate that older taxpayers felt a heightened moral obligation to comply with tax regulations during the COVID-19 crisis compared to younger individuals. Gender did not significantly affect intended tax compliance in crisis periods. Voluntary compliance showed mixed outcomes; taxpayers who recognized taxes as beneficial to society demonstrated increased compliance during the pandemic, whereas those who usually paid willingly displayed decreased compliance. Crucially, higher perceptions of tax fairness and greater trust in governmental institutions substantially increased taxpayers' moral obligation to comply during the pandemic. Unexpectedly, reduced corruption perceptions did not correspond with improved tax compliance. This research contributes to existing literature by highlighting the complex interplay of demographic variables, voluntary compliance motivations, and institutional trust during economic crises. The findings emphasize the need for policymakers to foster transparent communication, equitable tax policies, and enhance institutional trust to maintain and potentially increase tax compliance during challenging economic conditions.