The Growth of China's Strategic Nuclear Potential as a Threat to Japan's National Security: Estimates and Forecasts

Based on the analysis of a set of policy documents and works by military analysts from Japan, the article identifies direct and indirect threats to Japan's national security caused by changes in China's foreign policy at the beginning of the 21st century, reflected in the growth of the military, and in particular, the nuclear arsenal. It is shown that the analysis of the problem of the evolution of China's nuclear strategy is complicated because of the lack of open information on the topic. It is concluded that in many ways the conclusions of Japanese experts are secondary, based on research by US scientists and documents from law enforcement ministries and departments of the United States. This includes their analysis about the scope of China's nuclear arsenal, the content and evolution of PRC nuclear strategy, scenarios of a hypothetical conflict in the Asia-Pacific region with China and its nuclear forces included. The article provides examples of mainstream narratives by Japanese experts about the potential threat from leading nuclear states: Russia and China in the current turbulent situation. An increase in tension and alarmist sentiments in the ruling circles and society of Japan has been revealed. It is determined that factor of China in 2022–2024 remains dominant for the implementing of Japan's foreign policy strategies. The paper reveals the reflection of Japanese researchers on the assessment of the role and place of Japan as an ally of the United States and as a country seeking to enhance its status in the system of international relations and the dialogue of the world's leading countries on disarmament.