What Constitutes a “Good” Prevision? The Indispensable Link between Futures Studies and Social Science Methodology

Aim of this work is to analyse the link between Futures Studies and the Methodology of Social Sciences discipline. This can be a useful tool for better understanding what defines the quality of a research work aimed to possible futures. The historical debate on scientific explanation can be considered the starting point of the reflection about this very complex topic. The debate began to develop soon after the publication of the 1948 article by Hempel and Oppenheim. Indeed, it was a very heated epistemological discussion, although it never had a real conclusion. Nevertheless, a maybe still interesting topic directly involving the Futures Studies discipline arose directly from it: it was a sort of spin-off born from the main theme of the debate. That is, whether an explanation can also be considered a prevision, and vice versa. Starting from this, given the centrality of the topic of scientificity linked to this aspect, the many elements that emerged at the time can nevertheless stimulate still today a reflection on the criteria of scientificity in terms of research on possible futures. Keywords: scientific explanation, relationship between explanation and prevision, futures studies, methodology of social sciences