Scaling seed demand through behavioral insights: Applying the COM-B model and behavioral change wheel to the maize seed sector in Uganda

Improved crop varieties in sub-Saharan Africa promise higher yields but remain underutilized by smallholder farmers. In Uganda, low varietal turnover, distrust in formal seed markets, and behavioral barriers contribute to these low adoption rates. While adoption studies often consider knowledge and access, they tend to understate the role of behavioral factors in shaping uptake. In contrast, behavioral economists highlight how cognitive biases, motivation, and social norms influence decisions. This research addresses the gap in behavioral studies regarding varietal adoption and seed demand by explicitly connecting smallholders' seed choices to their behavior (seed choice) resulting from their c apabilities, o pportunities, and m otivations (the COM-B model). Additionally, the research employs the behavioral change wheel, linking intervention functions and policies with these behavioral components. The conceptual framework integrates insights from agricultural technology adoption, behavioral economics, and seed sector research. Focus group discussions with men's and women's groups in Uganda were analyzed to elicit behavioral barriers to and drivers of the acceptance of drought-tolerant maize (DTM) varieties. Drivers and barriers were categorized into emerging themes under each component of the COM-B model. Findings were triangulated with peer-reviewed literature regarding maize seed and seed sector functioning in Uganda. Subsequently, the behavior change wheel was applied to identify corresponding interventions and policies and propose actions to scale seed demand. Focus group discussions revealed that complex interactions between and among capability, opportunity, and motivation constrain farmers' use of DTM varieties. Structural and psychological factors, as well as trust, strengthen reliance on familiar practices such as home-saved seed. While gaps in capability were common among group members, barriers related to opportunity and motivation generally exerted greater influence on their choices. Seed sector challenges include low varietal turnover, subsidy dependence, and “lemon market” dynamics (counterfeit seed and weak certification), which limit opportunities to scale seed demand within the near future. Encouraging seed subsidies and strengthening agricultural extension services are commonly suggested; however, strategic actions that enhance information reliability, improve trust in formal markets, and augment value chain integration have greater potential in the Ugandan seed market. This research demonstrates the interconnectedness of promoting improved maize varieties and seed sector functioning. The framework encourages policymakers, private-sector actors, and researchers to consider how cognitive and unconscious mental processes, capabilities, and opportunities influence behavior and can be used to tailor interventions that shape smallholders' seed choices within the limits of the prevailing seed sector governance. • The behavioral change wheel is a helpful tool in understanding adoption of drought-tolerant maize varieties. • Seed demand requires the capability, opportunity, and motivation to buy seed. • COM-B model differentiates smallholders' automatic and reflective motivation. • Ambition, adding motivation to awareness, access, availability, and affordability.