Modeling the systemic balance of the regional economy under conditions of uncertainty

Purpose: of the article is to develop the model for assessing and analyzing the systemic balance of the regional economy using the methodology of Bayesian intelligent measurements and the spatiotemporal classification of the economic systems. Methods: the article utilized the methods of system analysis, correlation analysis, and Bayesian intelligent measurement methodology. These approaches were applied in conditions of uncertainty, inaccuracy, and incompleteness of data. Results: the extensible hierarchical information model of the regional economy has been developed, which makes it possible to assess the level of balance of economic subsystems, the components of which are elements characterized by resultative characteristics – the GDP by region by type of economic activity. The methodology for determining the norms for performance characteristics is applied in three variants: on the average, taking into account influencing factors and taking into account weighted (by assessing correlation dependencies) influencing factors characterizing the operating conditions of the elements of the economic system and their uncertainty within the framework of spatiotemporal classification. The system balance is determined by the harmony coefficient for four types economic subsystems with linguistic representations. Based on the data for 2017–2022, models were built for 17 regions of the Central Federal District, each of which includes 19 partial and 5 integral performance characteristics, as well as 55 factor characteristics. The systemic balances of the economies of the Central Federal District regions are assessed and analyzed. Conclusions and Relevance: the proposed model and methodology for assessing the systemic balance of the regional economy makes it possible to adequately assess and analyze its state in conditions of uncertainty and incompleteness of data for the subjects of the Russian Federation. It has been revealed that with the general decrease in some performance indicators over the last assessment period, the economy of the regions is in a balanced and close to normal state, although the risk of losing this position is quite high.