Recycling, natural resource rents, and climate policy uncertainty: Impacts on material sustainability in the U.S.

This study looks at how recycling (RCY), natural resource rents (NRR), and uncertainty in climate policy (CPU) affect material sustainability in the United States, using the material footprint (MF) as the main measure. This research uses yearly data from 1990 to 2023 and applies quantile and threshold regression methods to assess how these factors affect the MF in the U.S., specifically including CPU. The empirical findings corroborate three principal hypotheses. Recycling markedly diminishes the material footprint, with more pronounced effects evident at elevated levels of material usage. Secondly, NRR positively impacts the MF, especially beyond a certain threshold, hence strengthening the dynamics of the "resource curse." Third, CPU exacerbates the material footprint by compromising policy consistency and dissuading long-term investments in sustainability. Furthermore, we show that economic growth and urbanization enhance MF, highlighting the need for cohesive planning and resource-efficient urban development. These findings provide innovative policy insights for improving material sustainability and further the advancement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) and 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production). • The study analyzes how recycling, resource rents, and climate policy uncertainty impact U.S. material sustainability. • The research uses quantile and threshold regressions on U.S. data spanning from 1990 to 2023 for robust inference. • Recycling lowers material footprint, with stronger effects at higher levels of material consumption. • Resource rents raise material use, confirming a threshold effect consistent with the "resource curse. • Climate policy uncertainty worsens material use by undermining policy stability and investment.