Marginal abatement cost and carbon reduction potential assessment for energy-intensive Industries: Case studies in China

Energy-intensive industries play a critical role in achieving carbon reduction goals. This paper proposes a quantitative evaluation model for Marginal Abatement Costs (MACs) and carbon reduction potential, enabling scientific assessment of abatement costs and capabilities. Building on this model, a comprehensive assessment framework is further introduced, integrating both economic and environmental dimensions through novel indicators such as the baseline MAC and the carbon reduction index. Using 2022 data on carbon reduction technologies and industrial carbon emissions from China’s steel, cement, petrochemical, power, and coal industries, an empirical analysis is conducted. The results reveal clear differences in abatement capabilities across industries, offering valuable insights for developing targeted low-carbon transition strategies in energy-intensive industries. • We propose a precise model to quantitatively characterize Marginal Abatement Costs (MACs) and assess the carbon reduction potential of energy-intensive industries. • The proposed model can effectively differentiate between industries in terms of their carbon reduction capabilities, providing practical insights for guiding low-carbon transitions. • We establish a comprehensive assessment framework that integrates both economic and environmental benefits, addressing the gap in previous models by considering the economic dynamics of carbon reductions. • Novel indicators, including the baseline MAC and carbon reduction index, enable the precise quantification of carbon reduction potential and associated cost-benefit relationships. • Substantial empirical analysis on data from five key energy-intensive industries (steel, cement, petrochemical, power, and coal) demonstrates the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed model.