Future Environmental Change Trends in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta Regions with Modern Governance Achievements: Theoretical, Current Status and Policy Research

This study focuses on the prediction of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and inflection point issues in the Yangtze River Pearl River Delta basin in the future, and conducts an in-depth analysis by comprehensively applying multiple research methods. By combing the theoretical evolution of the Environmental Kuznets Curve, this study clarifies its historical process from proposal to development and its morphological changes in different contexts. Based on the current status of China's economy and environment, it is found that there is a complex relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution at the current stage. Although the emissions of some pollutants show a downward trend, the overall situation remains severe, and the timing of the inflection point is constrained by multiple factors. On the basis of analyzing influencing factors such as industrial structure, technological innovation, and environmental policies, this study constructs a dynamic computable general equilibrium model (CGE) to simulate the impacts of different policy combinations on the curve's inflection point, puts forward targeted policy recommendations to promote the coordinated development of economy and environment, and provides theoretical support and decision-making basis for China to achieve sustainable development.