Forecasting and Yield Sustainability Insights into Potato Production in Madhya Pradesh, India

Background: This study utilized the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, Trend and sustainability approaches to analyze the annual potato area, production and productivity data from 1970 to 2023. The primary focus of this study was the predicted potato production behavior for India and Madhya Pradesh. Methods: The data series was split into two datasets: a training dataset (1970–2020) and a testing dataset (2021–2023) to build and validate a model. The best selected models were used to forecast potato production up to 2030. Result: The production of potatoes in Madhya Pradesh and India in 2023 was 3925.65 and 61250.50 thousand tonnes. Madhya Pradesh and India are predicted 2030 to produce 4559.87 and 63318.26 thousand tonnes. In India and Madhya Pradesh, the area under potato cultivation has changed by 208.76 per cent and 508.32 per cent, respectively, between 1970 to 2023, while production has climbed by 634.06 per cent in India and 1032.30 per cent in Madhya Pradesh.