Analysis of methods for evaluating the effectiveness of geological and technical measures and decision-making for their selection: conceptual review

The paper examines modern approaches to the selection and evaluation of the effectiveness of geological and technical measures (GTM) aimed at enhancing oil recovery and developing hard-to-recover reserves.The primary objective is to identify optimal methods that ensure high technical and economic efficiency under complex geological and operational conditions.The study analyzes traditional and modern methods for assessing GTM effectiveness, including extrapolation of basic production characteristics, analysis of oil production decline curves, and forecasting using probabilistic-statistical models.The paper emphasizes the insufficient reliability of traditional approaches due to data uncertainties, multi-criteria considerations, and the non-linear interaction of factors.A review of literature highlights the potential use of fuzzy logic, "least concessions" methods, cluster analysis, and expert systems, which allow accounting parameter boundary uncertainties and making more accurate decisions in the context of incomplete data.Examples of applying modern methods to various oil fields are provided.The possibility of developing integrated information systems on decision support, incorporating mathematical algorithms, databases, and predictive models, is discussed.Particular attention is given to selection of parameters to evaluate the effectiveness of measures, such as physical and geological characteristics, water cut, oil production rates, and economic indicators.The paper substantiates the necessity for further improvement of approaches to GTM evaluation and planning.It proposes the integration of modern methods for data analysis, modeling, and forecasting to enhance the reliability and accuracy of decisions, thereby contributing to the successful optimization of oil field development and risk reduction.