Application of Singular Spectrum Analysis in Predicting Rupiah Exchange Yuan

The exchange rate between two countries is the price of the currency used by residents of these countries to trade with each other, the relationship between the Rupiah exchange rate and the Yuan is one of the important aspects in the dynamics of international trade. Therefore, forecasting the exchange rate is important as an effort to predict the exchange rate of Rupiah against Yuan in the future. The method used for forecasting is Singular Spectrum Analysis, namely decomposition and reconstruction. The accuracy of the resulting forecast is measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error criterion. The exploration results obtained are forecasting accuracy based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error value of 2.15% with a window length of 23 which identifies that the forecasting results are accurate and effective. Forecasting is said to be accurate if the Mean Absolute Percentage Error value is lower than 10% and close to 10%

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Publication Details

Journal
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications
Published
2025-06-24
DOI
https://doi.org/10.29244/ijsa.v9i1p75-85
Primary Topic
Grey System Theory Applications
Type
article
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article

Application of Singular Spectrum Analysis in Predicting Rupiah Exchange Yuan

Dina Nurul Fitria, Yenni Kurniawati, Zilrahmi Zilrahmi, Muhammad Hendrawan
Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications
Grey System Theory Applications
article

Application of Singular Spectrum Analysis in Predicting Rupiah Exchange Yuan

Dina Nurul Fitria, Yenni Kurniawati, Zilrahmi Zilrahmi, Muhammad Hendrawan
article en

Abstract

The exchange rate between two countries is the price of the currency used by residents of these countries to trade with each other, the relationship between the Rupiah exchange rate and the Yuan is one of the important aspects in the dynamics of international trade. Therefore, forecasting the exchange rate is important as an effort to predict the exchange rate of Rupiah against Yuan in the future. The method used for forecasting is Singular Spectrum Analysis, namely decomposition and reconstruction. The accuracy of the resulting forecast is measured using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error criterion. The exploration results obtained are forecasting accuracy based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error value of 2.15% with a window length of 23 which identifies that the forecasting results are accurate and effective. Forecasting is said to be accurate if the Mean Absolute Percentage Error value is lower than 10% and close to 10%

Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its ApplicationsVol. 9(1)
State University of Padang (ID)
Openalex Percentile: Top 82%
Grey System Theory Applications
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Application of Singular Spectrum Analysis in Predicting Rupiah Exchange Yuan — Dina Nurul Fitria, Yenni Kurniawati, et al. · Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS