Economy of Ukraine during the war: challenges, opportunities, and drivers of recovery

Introduction. The economy of Ukraine during the war has faced a multidimensional systemic crisis, manifested in the destruction of production capacities, disruption of value chains, population displacement, decline in labour potential, and loss of investment attractiveness. At the same time, certain sectors – agriculture, the IT industry, logistics, and the defence industry – have demonstrated resilience, maintained critical economic functions and secured foreign exchange earnings. This contrast between crisis and adaptive processes underscores the need for a comprehensive study of the challenges, opportunities, and drivers of economic recovery during wartime and in the post-war period. Purpose. The purpose of this article is to identify the key challenges, opportunities, and drivers of Ukraine’s economic recovery under wartime conditions by analysing macroeconomic trends, sectors with export potential, and developing strategic directions of economic policy aimed at stimulating structural transformation and the development of high value-added production. Methodology. The research employs methods of systemic and structural analysis, comparative analysis, statistical generalization, graphical data interpretation, and SWOT analysis. Results. The article systematizes Ukraine’s macroeconomic indicators for 2005–2024, revealing trends of GDP decline, rising budget deficit, debt burden, inflationary pressure, currency devaluation, and shrinking bank lending. The SWOT analysis made it possible to identify the strengths of the economy (export potential of the agricultural and IT sectors, international financial support, flexibility of small businesses, development of renewable energy), weaknesses (high level of shadow economy, debt dependency, low credit activity), opportunities (development of the defence industry, DefenceTech, FinTech, integration into the European economy), and threats (protracted war, inflationary and currency pressure, demographic risks). The article substantiates directions for economic recovery policy, including financial stabilization, stimulation of innovation, development of high value-added sectors, and institutional modernization of governance.