Analysis of the Ghanaian housing deficit between 1991 and 2017: The potential household approach

This paper sought to offer alternative estimates of the Ghanaian housing deficit using the potential household approach (PHA) and to compare the PHA results with existing empirical studies. The PHA is a demographic trend-based analysis that compares expected households with actual households formed to arrive at the housing deficit. The paper employed secondary data extracted from the Ghana Living Standards Survey (GLSS) and census reports of the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS). It covered five survey reports comprising GLSS 3 to 7. GLSS 1 and 2 reports were not available to the researchers. The survey data covered the period from September 1991 to October 2017. These surveys were based on a sample of 15,000 households proportionally selected nationwide. In addition, the Ghana Housing Profile (GHP) (2011) report provided additional data for comparative analysis. The PHA results suggest that the Ghanaian housing deficit never reached two million within the period under consideration. Contrary to popular estimates and projections, the PHA further suggests a declining housing backlog since 2014, after the highest backlog of 1,346,674 was recorded. The declining deficit is partly explained by substantial net additions to the total housing stock from 1960 to 2021. This paper makes a methodological contribution to the estimation of housing deficits in Ghana and offers alternative housing deficit estimates. The study recommends a rigorous statistical analysis of the GSS data to confirm the PHA results, and further examination of the different forms and levels of the Ghanaian housing deficit for a better appreciation and policy response.