Macroeconomic and Structural Analysis, Econometric Estimates of Russia’s Economic Dynamics (2000-2021): Equations and Identities of the Investment Block

This article constitutes the subsequent installment in a series of publications by the authors, which are devoted to the results of the econometric model of Russia in the 2022 version. It describes the equations and identities of the investment block of the model. The estimated econometric equations characterize investments in fixed assets at the expense of such sources of financing as companies’ own funds, bank loans and government funds. Elasticities calculated on the basis of equations show a strong dependence of investments on public financing and on the liquidity of the economic system. At the same time, the impact of profitability is not so strong, although statistically significant. Impulse multipliers of exogenous variables show a profound impact of the state of the world economy on investment processes in Russia, as well as the important role of the latter in replacing the shortage of labor. The results of the forecast variants demonstrate a high degree of dependence of investment in Russia on the growth of the world economy, on the state of the financial account of the balance of payments, on the liquidity of the economy and on public procurement financing. The growth of tax revenues also contributes to investment, which reflects the important role of the state in the investment process in Russia. The article also provides an industry and regional cross-section of investment activity in Russia, international comparisons are also given.