Dampak Kebijakan Tarif Resiprokal Donald Trump terhadap Harga dan Nilai Ekspor Komoditas Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat Tahun 2018-2025

This study aims to analyze the impact of the reciprocal tariff policy implemented by Donald Trump on the price and value of Indonesian Crude Palm Oil (CPO) exports to the United States. Using the Error Correction Model (ECM) analysis method, this study explores the relationship between reciprocal tariffs, prices, and CPO export values in the short and long term. The data used include the value of CPO exports, reciprocal tariffs, and other macroeconomic variables from 2018 to 2025. The results of the analysis show that reciprocal tariffs significantly and positively affect the value of Indonesian CPO exports. Increasing tariffs encourages producers to improve the quality and competitiveness of their products, thereby increasing export volumes despite obstacles. In addition, reciprocal tariffs also have a positive effect on the price of Indonesian CPO exports, with rising global prices impacting the selling value of products in the international market. In the short term, Indonesian CPO producers are able to adapt quickly to policy changes, adjusting their pricing strategies to maintain competitiveness. Meanwhile, in the long term, this policy encourages innovation and market diversification, which contributes to increasing export values and prices. This research provides important insights for policymakers and industry players, showing that while reciprocal tariffs can be challenging, they can also open up opportunities for growth and improving the competitiveness of Indonesian CPO in the global market.