Shock Response Targeting Mechanism for the Poor and Vulnerable Urban Households in Nigeria

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought unprecedented hardship to the global community, with Nigeria being no exception. According to the World Bank's Poverty and Equity Brief for West Africa Nigeria (2021), more than 80 million Nigerians faced vulnerability and poverty due to the pandemic's socioeconomic impacts. In response, the Federal Government of Nigeria, through the National Social Safety-Nets Coordinating Office (NASSCO) in collaboration with the World Bank, implemented a Shock Responsive Mechanism (SRM) to provide targeted assistance to those most severely affected. This paper evaluates this mechanism's effectiveness, focusing on three innovative aspects: 1) the use of satellite remote sensing and machine learning algorithms for geographical targeting, 2) the performance of SMS/USSD remote registration platforms, and 3) the accuracy of beneficiary selection in identifying the urban poor. Our analysis of programme data covering over 2.7 million validated beneficiaries across Nigeria indicates that the satellite-based targeting approach successfully identified areas with population characteristics consistent with established urban poverty indicators. The mobile-based registration system achieved a 99% location accuracy rate when verified against field validation, though challenges related to timing and population mobility were noted. The socioeconomic profiles of beneficiaries align closely with established characteristics of urban poverty in Nigeria, suggesting effective targeting. This case study offers valuable insights for other countries with limited data infrastructure seeking to implement rapid, technology-driven social protection responses during crises.